Cingular the LBS (Location Based Services) bellwether

location based services


LBS, of which GPS is a part, will have a tremendous impact on mobile content. We'll call it GPS in this post, as that's what most people call it. This weekend I watched the movie CARS, and they referenced GPS at least twice - so that's mainstream!Information viewed with mobile GPS gives the user a distinctly different experience than surfing the Internet for information.For example, navigation aided by GPS turn by turn directions is a lot cooler than using paper directions printed from Google, Mapquest or Yahoo. Plus you always have your mobile device when you are lost, and rarely a printer.So when does mobile GPS take off on cell phones?I think a good bellwether is when Cingular launches GPS in their network.Then give it six months or so for GPS to permeate the customer service and marketing departments within that large company - and as specific 3rd party GPS app's begin to get media attention.Navigation (driving directions, traffic) and Tracking (trucks, people, pets) are GPS staples, but I would look to unique 3rd party app's to drive the market.Why is Cingular bellwether? They are a big carrier, and in mobile it takes 3 to tango.Sprint-Nextel has already begun launching 3rd party GPS app's. As GPS gets a wider marketing focus within Sprint, and is pushed down into the retail channels, Sprint will continue to be the innovator and risk taker in GPS.Verizon, has also launched GPS, with a push towards Verizon branded apps. 3rd party app's are making their way to the Verizon deck and I see our friends at a 3rd party app called Bones In Motion recently launched on Verizon.So I would think when Cingular makes a concerted GPS push to their 50 million plus user base, this forms the third leg of carrier GPS launches. Then I suspect mainstream GPS adoption will be 6 months away and ramp from there.Although I would like to see it sooner, I think Xmas 2007/1st Q 2008 is when GPS ushers in the real mobile 2.0.But don't fret... the future winners of GPS, the really cool app's, you will start seeing them early 2007. First adopters will be all over these applications.I know Smarter Agent has 2 industry changing app's ready to go 1st Q 2007. We will launch these applicaitons at CES (consumer electronics show) in Vegas the first week in January. YOU can use them along with a 100,000 of your closest friends.But to the point of mainstream adoption, let's make a prediction that +/-5% of all wireless users trying a cellphonbe based GPS application within 6-9 months of Cingular' GPS launch, growing to 30% of all wireless users having tried an LBS app by 2010.
# posted by Brad Blumberg @ Tuesday, November 14, 2006