Trouble for mobile WiMAX
HSDPA to take off in 2008

location based services

Timo Poropudas
18 Jun 2006 at 04:57
Samsung advertised it HSDPA in Barcelona 3GSM World. According to new forecasts released by Ovum, the number of HSDPA connections will reach 16.5 million by the end of 2008 in Western Europe. This will grow from a small base of half a million at the end 2006, as UMTS operators throughout the region start deploying this new high speed wireless technology.“2008 will be the year when the HSDPA market truly takes off,” says Julien Grivolas, wireless technology analyst with Ovum. “This is when HSDPA mobile phone handsets become widely available to the public, more affordable, and therefore reach the mass market.”“Until that point, HSDPA will remain a data card market for enterprises,” says Grivolas. “In the initial stages, operators will focus their launches on business use through laptops via data cards.”Ovum estimates that the number of connections will reach 635,000 in Western Europe by the end of the year and will grow to 50 million by the end of the decade.Ovum attributes the fast development of HSDPA to its low cost and relative ease of implementation. “Rolling out HSDPA only requires a software upgrade of the existing UMTS radio network infrastructure and re-uses UMTS spectrum,” says Grivolas. “It allows mobile operators to leverage their UMTS investments used for 3G, a strong plus point. By 2008 it’s very likely that most UMTS operators throughout the world will have deployed it.”“Because HSDPA can deliver the real benefits of 3G, its fast development will have a considerable impact on the success of alternative broadband wireless technologies such as mobile WiMAX (16e standard),” says Grivolas. “In areas where HSDPA becomes widely available, like Western Europe, and where well-suited spectrum for 16e is rare, the window of opportunity for mobile WiMAX will be quite limited.”HSDPA is mostly being introduced in mature 3G markets such as Germany and in countries where there is intense competition with rival technology EV-DO, such as the US. However, due to the small incremental cost of HSDPA rollout, the technology is also being deployed in less developed 3G countries such as South Africa.